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Home REAL ESTATE

Spring seller surge set to keep house prices ‘in check’

Property Industry Eyeby Property Industry Eye
April 1, 2026
Reading Time: 3 mins read
in REAL ESTATE, UK&IRELAND
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Property transactions rebounded in February, with the latest HMRC figures showing a 6% month-on-month increase following a dip in January.

Seasonally adjusted residential transactions rose from 96,940 in January to 102,410 in February 2026 – the highest monthly total since March 2025. Despite the increase, activity remains 6% lower than the same month last year, when transactions were boosted by buyers bringing forward purchases ahead of changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax thresholds in April 2025.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions were also up, rising 7% over the month.

In the non-residential sector, seasonally adjusted transactions reached 10,150 in February, up 2% from January but still 2% below February 2025 levels. Non-seasonally adjusted figures showed a similar trend, increasing 3% month-on-month to 8,790, while also sitting 2% lower year-on-year.

Overall, February’s figures suggest activity has recovered from January’s slowdown, with transaction levels returning close to those seen before November 2025.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank commented, “Transactions were picking up earlier this year as spring approached and the uncertainty caused by November’s Budget was disappearing into the rearview mirror. The recent spike in mortgage rates as a result of the Middle East conflict will have a delayed impact on the housing market as higher rates feed through over the next several months, putting downwards pressure on sales volumes and prices. The extent to which demand is kept in check depends on the length and severity of the conflict and how the Bank of England calibrates its response.”

February’s HMRC property transactions data points to a housing market that remains resilient, according to Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops.

He commented: “Activity levels suggest a measured start to the year, with buyers proceeding thoughtfully as mortgage rates continue to fluctuate, encouraging a more considered and deliberate approach to decision-making.

“This marks a clear contrast to the same period last year, when buyers were actively rushing to complete transactions ahead of the stamp duty changes introduced in April 2025. That surge in activity inevitably pulled forward a degree of demand.

“Across our network, we have recorded a noticeable increase in new instructions, particularly in coastal locations and well-connected commuter hotspots. Branches such as Newmarket and Taunton have seen property instructions more than double month-on-month, reflecting growing seller confidence as we move toward the spring market.

“Encouragingly, properties priced in line with current market conditions are attracting meaningful interest and progressing to exchange, while those positioned above market expectations are continuing to require greater patience and careful negotiation.”

Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, added: “This transaction data reflects the period following the uncertainty created by pre-Budget speculation and before the Middle East conflict arose. The market was picking up, with buyers and sellers keen to make their move and transaction levels at the same level as in the run-up to the end of the stamp duty holiday last year.

“The data shows how important clarity and confidence are for the smooth functioning of the housing market. Our own property sentiment index suggests that focused buyers and sellers are getting on with the business of moving, with many having already delayed decisions and not prepared, or able to, hold off any longer.

“Although mortgage rates are edging upwards, these come on the back of several base-rate reductions from the Bank of England. Many borrowers are still in a better position as far as affordability is concerned than they were a couple of years ago.

“The increase in sellers bringing their homes to market this spring will keep prices in check to an extent, which should further assist those looking to move.”

 

Read the orginal article: https://propertyindustryeye.com/spring-seller-surge-set-to-keep-house-prices-in-check/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=spring-seller-surge-set-to-keep-house-prices-in-check

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June 6, 2023

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