The European non-performing loan (NPL) market has undergone significant transformation over the past decade, but fresh risks are emerging. A new report, Monitoring the State of NPL Secondary Markets, from the NPL Advisory Panel to the European Commission (EC), provides a comprehensive assessment of the sector, tracking:
(i) the evolution of NPLs in the EU, the potential outlook, and the connected cost‑of‑living crisis;
(ii) the NPL secondary markets – including key participants (e.g., servicers, purchasers) and transaction trends in volume, pricing, and performance; and
(iii) the evolution of costs, fees and forbearance measures.
A key takeaway from this research is that while regulatory reforms have improved transparency and liquidity, emerging vulnerabilities in key sectors, tightening credit conditions, and cross-border inefficiencies could create headwinds for Europe’s secondary NPL market. While initiatives to promote standardisation, enhance investor participation, and structure the sales process have gained traction, regulatory fragmentation and macroeconomic shifts could impede further progress. Investors and servicers must navigate a more complex and fragmented landscape, shaped by macroeconomic shifts, reduced NPL stock, and changing investor dynamics.
NPL levels decline, as distress re-emerges
After a decade of deleveraging, Europe’s banks have cut NPL exposures from 6.5% in 2014 to just 1.9% by Q3 2024. However, improved headline NPL ratios mask re-emerging financial distress. NPL volumes have increased by €16 billion across Austria, France, Germany, and Romania since 2023, while Poland now holds the highest NPL ratio at 4.0%, indicating stress is resurfacing, driven by high interest rates and reduced liquidity. Sectoral vulnerabilities are also rising, particularly in commercial real estate (4.3%) and SME loans (4.6%).
Regulatory fragmentation restricts cross-border transactions
Despite these pockets of distress, cross-border NPL transactions remain limited – hindered by regulatory barriers – with only 10% of deals spanning multiple jurisdictions, according to the NPL Advisory Panel’s 2024 survey. While the NPL Directive was intended to facilitate greater market harmonisation, regulatory fragmentation continues to hinder cross-border investor participation. Persistent legal and procedural disparities across Member States limit the effectiveness of the NPL Directive. Differences in insolvency laws, slow judicial proceedings, and national licensing restrictions create barriers to cross-border investment, making risk assessment complex, reducing market liquidity, and prolonging resolution times.
The NPL Directive’s new passporting system for credit servicers is a step toward harmonisation, allowing firms authorised in one Member State to operate in others. However, its scope is limited to NPLs issued by EU credit institutions, meaning national restrictions still apply in many cases. This has left key inefficiencies unresolved, slowing the pace of standardisation across the EU’s fragmented secondary NPL market.
Transaction and debt collection costs, and forbearance measures
The patchwork of national regulations governing fees, debt collection, and forbearance further complicates cross-border NPL transactions. These costs and procedures remain highly variable across EU Member States, shaped by national laws, consumer protection frameworks, and judicial processes. While the NPL Directive has introduced harmonisation efforts, it applies only to bank-originated credit, excluding non-bank debts such as utility bills, telecom arrears, and e-commerce financing. This gap creates an uneven regulatory landscape, where different categories of debt – and debtors – are subject to divergent legal and financial consequences depending on jurisdiction.
For servicers operating across multiple Member States, these inconsistencies increase the complexity of structuring deals, assessing enforcement costs, and managing borrower interactions. However, the shift toward secondary NPL sales has helped lower costs in some segments, as investors can acquire restructured portfolios with reduced legal complexities. In the long term, regulatory misalignment may distort pricing in secondary NPL markets, limiting investor appetite and creating inefficiencies in debt resolution.
PE investors retreat as credit servicers expand market role
Historically, US-based distressed debt funds dominated NPL acquisitions, with Cerberus, Blackstone, PIMCO, and Fortress driving deal flow. However, high interest rates and shrinking NPL stock have led many to scale back their exposure. At the same time, credit servicers – responsible for managing, restructuring, and recovering distressed debt on behalf of investors – have expanded their role. According to the paper, credit servicers have nearly doubled their balance sheet size over the past decade, growing from €43 billion in 2014 to €82 billion in 2023. However, this expansion has come at a cost. The sector is highly concentrated, with the top 20 servicers managing 90% of total serviced assets. Some are now under financial strain, with one major player filing for creditor protection in 2024, highlighting the pressures of higher funding costs and fewer available deals.
Costs pressures weigh on NPL profitability
The report finds that profitability in the NPL servicing sector has been volatile, shaped by rising financing costs and shifting market conditions. Return on Assets (RoA) and Return on Equity (RoE) peaked in 2014 but declined sharply between 2017 and 2020, recovering briefly in 2022 before correcting again in 2023, with more firms reporting losses.
Larger servicers have been particularly exposed, with gearing ratios surging to 190% in 2023, highlighting the risks of overleveraging in a high-interest-rate environment. Rising borrowing costs have forced investors to demand stronger returns, pushing discount rates higher and lowering NPL portfolio valuations. Meanwhile, the withdrawal of state-backed guarantee schemes – such as Italy’s GACS (expired in 2022) and Greece’s HAPS (renewed in late 2023) – has further weighed on deal activity. With rising refinancing costs and fewer distressed assets available, the report warns that financial pressures on servicers could have broader implications for market stability. As the sector remains highly concentrated, how servicers and investors adjust to this more challenging pricing environment will shape the future trajectory of Europe’s NPL market.
Deal volumes decline as market pivots to secondary transactions
The stock of NPLs held by EU banks has declined from over €1 trillion in 2014 to €372 billion in 2023. While no 2024 figure was cited in the report, ECB data puts total EU bank-held NPLs at €360.54 billion as of Q3 2024. With fewer distressed assets on bank balance sheets, annual NPL transaction volumes have declined in recent years.
Large-scale portfolio disposals by banks have slowed considerably, but market activity remains robust. A growing proportion of transactions now occur in the secondary market, where credit purchasers resell NPL portfolios to other investors. This recycling of existing NPLs is maintaining liquidity in the sector, even as direct bank-originated sales decline. The report suggests that NPL sales may pick up again in 2025, particularly if more Stage 2 loans transition into NPLs amid continued economic uncertainty. This could result in a renewed uptick in both primary bank-originated transactions and secondary market activity.
The European secondary NPL market is becoming a more dominant segment of the overall sector, supported by regulatory harmonisation and digital marketplace innovation. The Directive on Credit Servicers and Credit Purchasers, along with the EU’s standardised transaction data templates, is setting the stage for a more transparent, competitive, and efficient NPL ecosystem. These measures are designed to improve risk transfer from banks to private investors, reduce inefficiencies, and enhance price discovery. However, the implementation of these reforms across Member States has introduced new uncertainties, particularly around regulatory interpretation and compliance enforcement.
As the secondary NPL market expands, digital platforms are playing a critical role in driving efficiency, liquidity, and investor access to distressed assets across multiple jurisdictions. With secondary transactions now accounting for a growing share of the market, this shift is ensuring that liquidity remains strong, even in an environment where bank-originated NPL disposals are slowing.
Looking ahead, a more fragmented but increasingly sophisticated European NPL market is emerging. While the volume of primary bank sales has fallen, the market is not in retreat – it is evolving. The report highlights that new participants are entering the space, investor strategies are broadening, and technology is streamlining transactions. The role of secondary sales, restructured portfolios, and alternative asset classes within the distressed debt landscape is expanding, presenting new opportunities for investors and servicers alike.
Read the orginal article: https://www.debitos.com/news/europes-npl-sector-braces-for-new-distress-as-secondary-market-expands/
