The UK housing market has softened in recent days, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Property Survey for March 2025 has revealed.
The initial rush to complete sales before the April 1 deadline notably subdued towards the latter end of March, according to respondents.
Market professionals turned increasingly cautious on the near-term sales outlook, although twelve-month expectations remain somewhat positive for now. New buyer demand slipped to a net balance of -32% in March, down from a reading of -16% overall last month. What’s more, the latest result marks the weakest demand sentiment since September 2023.
For agreed sales, the March net balance of -16% represents a slight further deterioration from -13% returned in the previous iteration of the survey.
Looking to the future, three-month sales expectations point to a further dip in activity over the near term. Further ahead the outlook is not quite as downbeat, with a net balance of +11% of survey participants expecting sales volumes to rise.
Look at house price sentiment, the survey’s headline gauge returned a net balance of +2% this month, easing from readings of +20% and +11% in January and February respectively. As such, recent feedback is consistent with price growth largely flattening out over the past few months. This picture is mirrored across most of the UK; however, Scotland and Northern Ireland appear more resilient to downward price pressures.
In the rental market, a rise in tenant demand was reported by a net balance of +20% of
Respondents. This is the first month since October last year where contributors cited an increase in lettings demand. In parallel, respondents continue experiencing declines in landlord instructions (net balance -24%). With letting demand increasing and supply diminishing, unsurprisingly a net balance of +31% of survey participants envisage rental prices moving higher over the coming three months.
Looking to next month, the impact on the UK property market from newly-imposed US global tariffs and potential tariff responses by other nations may stimulate further uncertainty going forward.
RICS Chief Economist, Simon Rubinsohn, said: “The expiry of the stamp duty break was always going to lead to a pause in activity in the sales market. However, the latest results, and indeed the anecdotal remarks from respondents to the survey, suggest that the shift in sentiment has been aggravated by the slew of negative macro newsflow over the past few weeks.
“Looking forward, the impact on the market will in no small part depend on how the economy is affected by the emerging trade war and the response of the Bank of England to the shifting environment. For now, it is noteworthy that the longer-term RICS expectations metrics are still relatively resilient, but they have the potential to be blown off course if the tariff headwinds intensify.”
Reflecting on the RICS UK Residential Property Survey for March 2025, Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank commented, “As buyers adapt to higher rates of stamp duty from this month, they also face headlines about a global recession sparked by US tariffs. While that may not be conducive to positive sentiment, the good news is that markets now expect the Bank of England to cut rates three times this year rather than two to deal with a possible economic slowdown.
“Ideally, the appearance of more sub-4% mortgages would be accompanied by an end to the gyrations seen on money markets in recent days. The risk is that tariffs may ultimately prove to be inflationary and the spillover effects mean upwards pressure on mortgage costs in the UK.
“For now, the housing market feels steady although the prospect of a tax-raising autumn Budget will throw more uncertainty into the mix later this year.”
As far as lettings in concerned, Bill added: “The Renters Rights Bill feels like it may prove to be bad news for tenants as supply weakens and upwards pressure on rents intensifies. Protecting tenants is a positive aim but not if landlords feel the new legislation, combined with tougher green regulations and higher mortgage costs, mean it no longer stacks up. For those landlords remaining in the sector, the positive news is that yields are rising as rents get pushed higher.”
Read the orginal article: https://propertyindustryeye.com/housing-market-losing-momentum-after-expiry-of-the-stamp-duty-break/
