The UK housing market returns to growth, fuelled by a surge in property transactions

The UK housing market returned to growth in 2024, driven by a £22.3bn increase in spending on house purchases, according to research by Savills.

Overall, the total value of the UK housing market has expanded by 6.3% in 2024 to £379bn. This equated to 1.1 million transactions at an average sale price of £343,822.

“Total spending on UK house purchases shifted back into positive territory in 2024 as stability returned to the mortgage markets,” said Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills.

“While the total size of the housing market is below its pandemic peak of £521bn, it remains £36bn larger than immediately before the pandemic. Further interest rate cuts expected this year will mean that the range of buyers coming to the market will widen, and we can expect to see their spending power pick up over the next 12 months.”

Source: Savills using data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey, HMRC and the Mortgage Lenders Administrative Returns

Use of debt vs equity

A £22.3bn increase in spending on house purchases was driven by a £24.3bn increase in the use of mortgage debt (+18.1%). But while the equity put down by mortgaged buyers rose by £6.3bn (+9.5%), spending among cash buyers fell by £8.4bn (-5.4%), meaning cash and equity fell to 58% of the total spend on housing.

The greatest increase in mortgage debt was among first-time buyers (+£12.2bn or +21.4%), which was fuelled by higher transaction levels and a slight easing in the average loan-to-value.

“The rise in first-time buyers reflects the overwhelming desire of Britons to get a foot on the housing ladder. Especially given the lack of choice in the private rented sector, and the double-digit rental growth tenants have experienced over the past few years.

“As a result, those who have been able to pull together a deposit have continued to take the plunge, despite higher house prices and mortgage rates,” comments Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills.

Table 1: Year-on-year comparison in total housing spend

Source: Savills using data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey, HMRC and the Mortgage Lenders Administrative Returns

“Clearly with ambitious housebuilding targets, the government would like to see a stronger recovery in the size of the housing market. With constraints on public finances, it looks like that will need to be rooted in relaxation in mortgage regulations to further increase first-time buyer activity.  Meanwhile, an improvement in activity among home movers is heavily dependent on further cuts in interest rates and an improvement in consumer confidence,” added Cook.

Size of South East housing market surpasses London’s

At a regional level, the greatest percentage increase in spending was seen in Northern Ireland (+13.4%), though it still only accounts for 1.4% of the total size of the housing market (£5.1bn).

London saw just a 2.3% increase in spend, as the size of its housing market (£72.8bn), fell below that of the South East (£74.5bn) for the first time in two years.

Table 2: Size of UK Housing Market By Region

Source: Savills using data from the Regulated Mortgage Survey, HMRC and the Mortgage Lenders Administrative Returns

Read the orginal article: https://propertyindustryeye.com/the-uk-housing-market-returns-to-growth-fuelled-by-a-surge-in-property-transactions/