SpaceX, the US aerospace company that Elon Musk launched in 2002, will soon file for a Nasdaq listing that may take place in June on the ground of an enterprise value of above 1.75 trillion US Dollars, above the 1.25 trillion that press items reported earlier in February when Musk said he was mulling for a merger of the asset with xAI “to create the most ambitious vertically integrated innovation engine on Earth (and beyond), featuring artificial intelligence, rockets, space internet, direct communications to mobile devices, and the world’s most advanced platform for information and freedom of speech” (see here a previous post by BeBeez). Bloomberg reported that xAI’s value amounted to 250 billion.
SpaceX aims to raise 50 billion through the IPO and eventually beat Tadawul-listed Saudi Aramco 2019 record of 29 billion.
The US Government granted Nasdaq-listed Tesla with the authorisation to convert his forward-looking investment in xAI (worth $2 billion) into a small stake in SpaceX. Furthermore, the documents that Tesla filed with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) say that the EV company is a buyer of SpaceX from Musk who also sold stocks in the soon-to-list asset to Valor Equity Partners, DFJ Growth and other investors for undisclosed value, even though the submission of material and the size of the shareholdings is mandatory for transactions exceeding 133.9 million Bloomberg reported.
Reuters said that SpaceX appointed Gibson Dunn as legal advisor and holding talks with underwriters Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley that appointed Davis Polk & Wardwell.
PItchBook says that SpaceX valuation of nearly 95 times the estimated 2025 turnover of 16 billion is high but not irrational while the fair value is of 1.1 – 1.7 billion. SpaceX has a premium multiple given its ebitda of 7.5 billion (ebitda margin in the region of 50%) and a three-year turnover CAGR of 50%. The valuation makes sense over a 5-7-year time horizon, as Starship (the AI-powered orbital data centres and a lunar base) gets closer to market and the direct-to-cell business expands driving returns through the achievement of specific milestones rather than short-term profit growth. Forecasts for 2040 indicate total revenue of around 150 billion and EBITDA of 95 billion.
