The latest RICS UK Residential Market Survey for November 2025 points to a subdued property market following the government’s Autumn Budget, with key indicators of buyer demand and sales volumes remaining firmly in negative territory.
Forward-looking signals offer little optimism for a near-term recovery, with agents predicting that the market may not see meaningful improvement until Spring 2026. Survey respondents highlighted the dampening effect of pre-Budget uncertainty and media “leaks”, while welcoming the government’s decision to limit the high value council tax surcharge to properties valued above £2m.
The survey shows continued declines across agreed sales, buyer enquiries, and new instructions, with London house prices particularly affected by the Budget’s tax measures. New buyer enquiries in November recorded a net balance of -32%, down from -24% in October, marking the weakest reading since late 2023. Agreed sales posted a net balance of -23%, largely unchanged from last month’s -24%, underscoring a persistent downward trend in sales activity.
Looking ahead, the near-term sales expectations series posted a net balance of -6%, slightly weaker than the previous -3% but still consistent with a largely flat outlook for sales for the coming three months. Over the year ahead, however, a net balance of +15% of respondents anticipate sales volumes will pick up, a more positive result than the +7% recorded last month.
The headline net balance for new instructions was -19%, similar to the previous reading of -20%, indicating a continued slowdown in the flow of properties being listed for sale.
Respondents also increasingly report that the number of market appraisals being undertaken is running below levels seen twelve months ago, with the net balance slipping to -40% (falling further into negative territory for the fourth consecutive month). This suggests the pipeline for new instructions is likely to remain subdued in the near term.
Survey feedback continues to point to a gentle decline in house prices at the aggregate level, posting a net balance of -16% in November. However net balance in London dropped to -44%, now more negative than any other part of the UK, in part due to the introduction of the High Valuation Council Tax Surcharge. In contrast, respondents in both Northern Ireland and Scotland continue to cite an upward trend in house prices.
Near-term price expectations were little changed in November, with a national net balance of -15% registered (-12% previously). The twelve-month expectations series moved slightly higher, with a net balance of +24% anticipating house prices will resume an upward trajectory over the coming year (the strongest reading since June).
In the lettings market, the net balance for landlord instructions remains deeply negative at -39%, with respondents pointing to a new income tax on property announced in the Budget as a factor that could further reduce new landlord instructions.
The monthly tenant demand indicator fell to a net balance of -22%, the weakest reading since April 2020. While some of this softness likely reflects seasonality (the monthly lettings data is not seasonally adjusted), there appears to be a broader cooling in tenant demand.
Near-term expectations for rental prices stand at a net balance of +6%, pointing to only marginal increases over the next three months (the flattest reading since the early stages of the pandemic). Nevertheless, on a twelve-month horizon, respondents project a +2.5% rise in rents, only slightly below the roughly 3% average expected looking back over the past six months.
The report indicates that the market is likely to remain subdued until early 2026, when seasonal conditions improve.
RICS chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn, said: “The housing market has been struggling for momentum for several months, and the recent Budget announcements are unlikely to materially shift that picture. The ending of Budget related uncertainty is welcome, but the fundamental challenges of affordability and elevated borrowing costs will in all probability keep activity subdued in the near term. That said, the twelve-month outlook has brightened somewhat, likely reflecting a growing sense that the Bank of England may have a little more scope to reduce interest rates than seemed plausible only a short while ago.
“Meanwhile in the lettings market, although tenant demand does appear to be softening the lack of stock is keeping rental expectations elevated and the additional tax levied on landlords in the Budget will likely exacerbate this trend.”
Reflecting on the RICS’s latest UK Residential Market Survey, Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, commented: “The barrage of property tax speculation before the Budget unsurprisingly soured sentiment among buyers and sellers. Now there is clarity, we expect existing transactions to accelerate before Christmas, and activity should remain relatively strong in early 2026.
“A downwards trajectory for interest rates will support demand but political uncertainty will become the key risk. The game of ‘guess the tax rise’ played in recent months could become a game of ‘guess the Chancellor’ if next spring’s local elections are as bad for Labour as the polls suggest.”
Anthony Codling, the managing director of equity research at RBC Capital Markets, added: “The latest RICS UK Residential Market Survey reflects the initial reaction of its members to the Budget. In short, they were not amused. To be fair, few of us do our best work in the immediate aftermath of a major event and the build up to the Budget was quite draining for those involved in the property market.
“Those who are feeling fragile may not wish to dig too deeply into the latest RICS report. However, the good news is that there are only 14 sleeps until Christmas and UK households love the smell of Rightmove on Boxing Day morning (we expect record viewing figures), and we believe that RICS’ December survey will be more upbeat than the post-Budget November edition.”
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