Guest article: AI… the silent partner to the regenerative agriculture revolution?

Johan Jörgensen is the founder of Sweden Foodtech, a leading think tank on the future of food.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of AgFunderNews.

It starts with a farm — one where the soil is cracked, water is scarce, and pests relentlessly challenge the harvest. This is the reality for many farmers around the world. But in one corner of this same field, something remarkable is happening. The soil is teeming with life, moisture is retained even in the harshest months, and crops are thriving. This transformation isn’t magic; it’s the power of regenerative agriculture.

Regenerative agriculture is gaining momentum as a game-changer in food systems. Unlike traditional farming, which often depletes resources, regenerative methods restore soil health, improve biodiversity, and sequester carbon. It’s the antidote to the industrial farming system that currently is depleting our planetary resources.

And now, AI is becoming the silent partner to the regenerative revolution, helping farmers worldwide make better, faster, and more sustainable decisions. At least that’s what we all should hope for. What might be worrying is which parts of the food system that will be fastest to move with the help of AI; the entrenched players (optimization) or the regenerative crowd (transformation)?

AI and precision ag

With the help of AI-powered sensors, farmers can now track moisture, pH, and nutrient levels in real time. This data allows them to apply only the nutrients their soils truly need, minimizing waste and costs while maximizing productivity. AI drones can scan vast crop fields to detect early signs of disease or pest infestations. Water, too, benefits from AI’s touch. Smart irrigation systems use algorithms to predict precisely how much water crops need, based on weather forecasts, soil data, and crop type.

In drought-prone areas like California’s Central Valley or Southern Europe, these systems have helped farmers cut water use by up to 30%, without sacrificing yield. Intercropping (growing several things in your field at the same time – a very good thing to do) is enabled by AI-powered sorting machines.

AI isn’t just transforming crops. In regenerative livestock systems, wearable devices monitor vital signs and behavior patterns of cattle, alerting ranchers when an animal shows signs of illness. This early detection reduces the need for antibiotics, aligning with regenerative principles of animal welfare and ecosystem health.

AI even helps manage grazing patterns. By tracking herd movement and pasture conditions, algorithms recommend optimal grazing rotations, ensuring land (or orchards/forests) regenerates fully before animals return. This practice, known as holistic grazing, has been shown to boost soil carbon sequestration, a key tool in fighting climate change.

Financing the transition to regen ag

The global regenerative agriculture market, valued at approximately $8.7 billion in 2022, is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.8%, reaching an estimated $31.6 billion by 2032, according to the research firm Market.us. Yes, that’s small compared to the overall food sector, but this rapid expansion can be further fueled by AI. But we need something else as well. Money. Though less than you think. And we should have them both at the same time.

In the short term, transitioning to regenerative methods may cause initial yield declines, as the ecosystem adjusts to new practices like reduced chemical inputs or diverse crop rotations. However, in the long term, regenerative agriculture often enhances soil fertility, water retention, and pest resilience, potentially leading to stable or even higher yields, particularly in degraded or marginal lands.

So, at the cost of some of the revenues during a transition period your land is suddenly much more valuable. Perhaps it costs nothing at all to transition, but individual farmers don’t have the funds to take the bet – we need to do that as nations. The same goes for how we choose to go about with AI as a tool for regeneration. Individual farmers cannot be expected to build the solutions – we need to do that in concerted efforts.

Personally I have a hard time finding a better use for pension or sovereign fund money than securing long-term food production capabilities through AI development and transition financing at the same time. Because both the development of new AI solutions and their implementation need to happen together!

The role of AI in regenerative agriculture is only beginning to unfold. Governments should therefore start tapping into AI-driven policy tools to craft incentives for sustainable practices and their funding. Investors should leverage AI analytics to identify high-potential startups in the regenerative space. And as these technologies become more accessible, we will be able to benefit from this digital revolution.

That said, there is one more obstacle. The regenerative movement needs to recognize and use AI to the fullest and get over their heavy (often healthy) dose of tech skepticism. Yes, AI might not be a rosy dream for all, but do consider the nightmare of the good guys not using AI, while the current industrial food system does so to the fullest. Which they will.

The journey from barren soil to thriving ecosystems may not be easy, but it’s one we can’t afford to delay. With AI as an ally, regenerative agriculture has the potential to feed a growing population while healing the planet. The question is no longer whether we should invest in this transformation but how much and how quickly we can scale.